The World Trade Organization (WTO) has been the most influential and comprehensive international organization in human history. In the traditional concept of time, time has a certain cycle of traits. After 60 years have passed, everything takes on a completely new look. Back to the history of WTO, analyzing its status and predicting its prospects, has an unusual significance.
The future of the WTO is related to the development of the world economy and the long-term peace of the world. What will the future of the WTO be like? People should correctly understand the status quo of WTO. WTO has established a set of international trade rules composed of a series of agreements through the Trade Policy Review Mechanism, and effective settlement of disputes. This order, established by rules, supervision and dispute settlement mechanisms, has become an important factor in promoting world economic development and world peace and progress.
The flourishing development of the FTA will inevitably trigger the idea of WTO innovation, for example, to discuss some "all-sided" agreement; to integrate FTA, to form a special agreement and so on. However, if we look at "the future of WTO" from the angle of rationality and foresight, we should base our plans on the maintenance of existing order and focus on the improvement of the system.
On the future of the WTO trade system, the following aspects are reflected:
If trade flows smoothly, both sides can benefit from healthy business relationships, and political conflicts are unlikely to occur. Increased trade means increased opportunities for disputes. Countries can seek international organizations to resolve trade disputes. Therefore, many international trade tensions have been eased. Trade facilitates economic development, and economic growth means higher rate of employment. Thus protecting the government from narrow interests of interference. The GATT-WTO system, developed in the second half of the twentieth century, helped the government to adopt a more balanced view of trade policy. This has encouraged a good government. Under WTO rules, it is difficult to reverse the promise of liberalization of an industry once it has been made. For businesses, this means more stable terms of trade and clarity. For the government, this means good restraint.
Member States of WTO can fully participate in the Doha Round negotiations, which will fully protect their own interests. Moreover, the WTO multilateral trading system can enable Member States to enjoy the benefits of non-discriminatory treatment and other aspects. In addition, members of the rapid economic development, exports increased to attract foreign investment continued to increase, also certainly benefit from the accession to WTO.
Finally, as what the author has written in the article, we cannot know where the multilateral trading system will be in another generation. However, drawing strength from the diverse perspectives and ideas of its members is what we can do right now.
Источник: Craig VanGrasstek, The History and Future of the World Trade Organization (July 2013), Hardback, 549-569